External trade falls in January amidst global economic uncertainty

Both imports and exports declined in January.

External trade dropped in January amidst uncertainty in the global economy, with exports falling to 1.1% from 13.1% in December 2024 and imports declining to 9.2% from 22.4%, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The drop in exports was largely attributed to a contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX).

The external outlook remains uncertain, weighed down by policy ambiguity under the new administration in the US. A temporary uptick in exports may occur in H1 2025, as US importers rush purchases to meet deadlines and avoid higher tariffs.

However, any rebound is expected to be short-lived, with export growth likely to slow in H2 2025 and continue softening into 2026.