, Singapore

Industrial production may have jumped to 14.2% in August

Electronic production should remain in the doldrums given the weakening demand for the US semiconductor industry.

Standard Chartered says the stronger rise in industrial production will mainly be due to the pharmaceuticals base effect.

Here’s more from Standard Chartered:


On Monday 26 September, the Economic Development Board will announce August industrial production numbers. Pharmaceuticals will again feature significantly in the y/y headline figure due to the very low base in August 2010, when pharmaceutical production contracted by 32% m/m. This time around, assuming flat m/m growth in pharmaceutical production, this would still translate to an increase of almost 17% y/y.

Meanwhile, electronic production should remain in the doldrums given the continued decline in the US semiconductor book-to-bill ratio, which fell to 0.86 in July 2011 (the 10th consecutive month where the index stayed below 1.0). On balance, we forecast a headline print of 14.2% y/y. While this number would be a strong rise from July‟s 7.4% y/y, it is largely on the back of the pharmaceuticals base effect. Importantly, ex bio, industrial production should contract by about 5.8% y/y, while we expect headline industrial production (seasonally adjusted) to have turned negative in August on a m/m basis.
 

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