NODX outlook lifted to 3%-5% on electronics strength

However, non-electronic exports fell 3.5% in Q1.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are expected to grow by 3% to 5%, supported by resilient artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand, according to Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG).

Exports grew 9.6% in the first quarter (Q1), exceeding expectations and extending the 12.7% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Growth was driven by electronics NODX, which expanded 57.8% in Q1, extending its 23.4% increase in the previous quarter. The expansion was primarily attributed to integrated circuits and disk media products.

However, non-electronic exports declined 3.5%, reversing the 9.4% growth in Q4 2025.

EnterpriseSG said the global economy has remained more resilient than expected since its last update.

The World Trade Organisation upgraded its global merchandise trade volume growth forecast to 1.9% in 2026, up from 0.5%, citing continued strength in AI-related trade and a smaller-than-expected impact from tariffs.

“The International Monetary Fund also raised its global trade volume growth forecast to 2.8%, up from 2.6% previously,” it added.

Domestically, firms in the electronics and precision engineering clusters expect improved overseas deliveries in the second quarter, with net weighted balances at 43% and 49%, respectively.

Overall business sentiment in the manufacturing sector improved to a net weighted balance of 17% for the next six months, up from 11% in the previous quarter.

However, EnterpriseSG warned of downside risks, including a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and a potential re-escalation of global trade tensions.

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