GDP forecast to grow by 3.0% in 2023: survey
Meanwhile, the 2022 GDP forecast remains at 4.0%.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released its March 2022 Professional Forecasters Survey, which showed the respondents' expectation of a 3.0% economic growth in 2023.
Moreover, the forecasters estimated gross domestic product (GDP) will expand 4.0% in 2022, unchanged from the December 2021 survey.
A sharper-than-expected rise in inflation driven mainly by higher energy and food prices, with an associated increase in the pace of monetary policy tightening by major central banks, was the most-cited downside risk to Singapore's growth outlook. It was identified by 94.4% of respondents and ranked as the top downside risk by 38.9% of respondents. In addition, respondents were concerned about downside risks from geopolitical tensions associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Finally, half of the respondents also pointed to risks from a further deterioration in the COVID-19 situation and re-tightening in public health measures.
Meanwhile, the prospect of re-opening borders to international travel emerged as the most frequently cited upside risk to the growth outlook and was identified by 64.7% of respondents. They also cited upside risks from a stronger-than-expected expansion in manufacturing output, as well as more robust growth in China, driven by macroeconomic policy easing.
Other forecasts included core inflation of 2.5% for the first quarter of 2022 and an unemployment rate of 2.2% at year-end, unchanged from the previous survey.
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